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No power, no chrome
News - 22 Apr 08
What has been assumed is now confirmed by statistics. The Brussels based International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF) published its preliminary figures at the beginning of April, showing stainless steel production in 2007 to be down by 2.9% over the previous year. With the exception of Asia, where output grew by 6.3% over the year before, the drop for the year as a whole has hit mainly the regions of Western Europe and Africa, with a cut of 13.3%, and the American continent with a fall of 15.2% in tonnage achieved, all figures compared to the previous year. In a quarterly review, information becomes more detailed. In the first half of the year, there was at first a clear increase in production, but the second half of 2007 was hit globally by drastic production cuts, caused by the correction in nickel prices and the trade reduction of stocks. In the third quarter, the cuts in production compared to the same quarter of 2006 were 34.6% in Europe / Africa, and 31.7% in the American region. Even Asia, which had actually increased production, seen over the whole year, due to the capacity expansions in China, saw a reduction in the third and fourth quarters of 2.5% and 8.8% respectively. The cuts, according to estimates of the ISSF have been seen mainly in the field of austenite Cr-Ni-Steel. Based on its figures, the ISSF has determined that the portion of the so-called 300 series has been reduced to about 51% in the fourth quarter of 2007, as opposed to over 80% in years gone by. Further figures in respect to this, especially in view of the increased prices of chrome in the first quarter, can be awaited with increase interest. Chrome is used especially in non-300 stainless steels.
Who will help Mr. Ackermann?
News - 25 Mar 08
On the 18th March 2008 in Frankfurt, Josef Ackermann, CEO of Deutsche Bank AG, took everyone by surprise with a speech held before bankers. He asked both government and central bank for help: “We need concerted action from central banks, investors and governments to finally put an end to this melt-down of worth.” The economy minded reader will wonder just what this cry for help from Mr. Ackermann means. He himself has always been a manager vehemently dedicated to blocking any intervention made by the state, considering this to cause great harm to the market economy. In the present turbulent times of the financial markets, and the troubled situation of financial institutions, such a cry would seem like quite a helpless gesture, would it not be for the history of Deutsche Bank, and its use of PR to achieve one or two goals, to put it diplomatically. In addition Mr. Ackermann and the author both studied at the same university, not that this necessarily speaks for either of them. However, it does show that Mr. Ackermann is neither a stupid nor inexperienced person who does not know what he is doing. It can be assumed, more likely, that Deutsche Bank AG is trying to gain something from the present crisis. So far, the bank does not seem as badly hit by the credit crisis as compared to some of its competitors. From this viewpoint it would make sense to add to the anxieties and insecurities of the markets. This could cause even more detriment to the reputations of the institutions involved in the present upheaval, while being beneficial to Mr. Ackermann’s interests.
Honi soit qui mal y pense
News - 25 Feb 08
With the help of considerably firmer price moves in copper and aluminium, the LME 3-months nickel quotation has broken through the upward resistance level of USD 28,500.00/mt. Fundamentally, there is no fresh news around, so it has yet to be seen whether prices will remain at these levels. That this price rise may be just a speculative “flash in the pan” is not even all that clear, since once again, capital is in a desperate search for an attractive investment. Interest rates are lowering, despite rising inflation, and also the stock market is more than a little nervous in light of the sub prime crisis, and not only in those areas of the market most directly affected. The ghost of deflation is making the rounds! This is a reason why commodity markets, especially after the corrections seen throughout the market in the second half of last year, could become a focus yet again, or, better said, with even more emphasis, for investors. USD 28,500.00/mt is now become a support level in this present movement, although for a further price rise, the resistance on the upside of USD 29,350.00/mt must be broken. This has not however, happened as yet.
French Roulette
News - 25 Jan 08
Looking at the financial markets of today, one could say that seeing does not necessarily mean believing. It’s not only that “triple A” rated banks are forced to write off billions as a result of the sub-prime crisis, but also now even safeguards at a French bank seem to have totally failed, causing an unparalleled speculative loss of just short of 5 billion Euros. These are events which, up to just a short while ago, were thought unimaginable.
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