News item
16 Feb 09
Self-interest does not mean for the common good
With regard to the development of commodity prices, a certain bottoming out can be seen. Also the price decay of freight rates has come to a halt and even started to turn. This does not, however, exclude a short term correction, as the course of prices is never one way. It is also clear that each day brings new horror stories from business life in the real economy, and so outside influences have a reaching effect on further economic development, especially on the consumer and investor. It is still too early to speak of a clear change in trend, even if the signs are showing, and the bad news reports in the commodity markets could not be any worse.
Looking at the forecasts for nickel prices, at the beginning of the year Metal Bulletin and the Reuters news agency made their traditional survey of the analysts of the most influential market participants. This produced the following result: the Metal Bulletin survey shows an average cash price for Nickel on the London Metal Exchange of about USD 11,250.00/mt for 2009. The forecast which Reuters produced for the same period shows an average price of 11,222.30/mt. For 2010 the houses included in the survey, come up with an average nickel price of USD 13,481.50/mt.
According to reports, some European stainless steel producers, including ArcelorMittal amongst others, have now begun to ignore the alloy premium when calculating prices. Officially it is to make the calculation of prices easier for consumers, in light of fluctuating commodity prices, but really a more pragmatic reason is probably behind this step. Since the stainless steel industry, world wide, was very withdrawn in its commodity purchases in the last quarter of 2008, an alloy supplement would have had such an effect on the calculation mechanism, that the artificially low commodity prices at the end of the 4th quarter would have suppressed the alloy supplement even more. This would have made calculations even more problematic since commodities were not always bought on the same levels. Nevertheless this move can only be saluted, with the hope it is echoed by many others.
LME (London Metal Exchange)
| LME Official Close (3 Monate) | ||||
| February 16, 2009 |
||||
| Nickel (Ni) | Copper (Cu) | Aluminium (Al) | ||
| Official Close 3 Mon.Ask |
10.075,00 USD/mt |
3.325,00 USD/mt |
1.350,00 USD/mt |
|
| LME stocks in mt | ||||
| January 16, 2009 |
February 16, 2009 |
Delta in mt | Delta in % | |
| Nickel (Ni) | 78.714 | 90.402 |
+ 11.688 |
+ 14,85% |
| Copper (Cu) | 391.525 |
523.325 |
+ 131.800 |
+ 33,66% |
| Aluminium (Al) | 2.485.275 | 2.938.250 |
+ 451.975 |
+ 18,23% |